The Global Oil Market and its Impact on Bulgaria: Q1 Analysis and Q2 Outlook (2026)
The beginning of 2026 has proven to be one of the most challenging periods for energy markets in the last decade. The combination of geopolitical tensions and large-scale logistical blockades has drastically altered the supply chain architecture, testing cost predictability for the transport and industrial sectors in Bulgaria.
Q1 2026 Retrospective
The first three months of the year were marked by a severe deficit and a sharp rise in crude oil prices. Here are the key data points that shaped the market:
Crude Oil Prices: At the beginning of January, Brent crude was trading at levels around $61 - $65 per barrel. Following events in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early March, prices crossed the psychological threshold of $100, peaking at $120 per barrel.
Logistical Shock (Strait of Hormuz): The blockade of the strait removed nearly 20% of global oil supplies from the market. Experts define this disruption as the most significant in decades.
Production and OPEC+: Although OPEC+ decided to begin phasing out some voluntary cuts in April (1.65 million barrels per day), the overall market deficit remains high. The primary cause is the physical inability of much of the output to reach global markets due to blocked sea routes.
Diesel Fuel in Bulgaria: Locally, prices mirrored the global spike. While at the end of January the average price of diesel in the country was approximately €1.22/L, by mid-April it fluctuated between €1.69/L and €1.76/L.
Scenarios for the Second Quarter (Q2 2026)
Forecasts for the April – June period depend directly on diplomatic efforts to reopen trade routes. Analysts are considering three main scenarios:
Scenario Expected Price (Brent) Diesel Forecast (BG) Probability
Optimistic: De-escalation and partial $85 – $95 / barrel Stabilization around €1.58 – €1.64/L 30%
reopening of the strait by the end of May.
Base (Realistic): Continued tension, but $105 – $115 / barrel Maintenance at €1.74 – €1.81/L 50%
with new logistical routes established.
Pessimistic: Escalation of the conflict and Over $140 / barrel Risk of exceeding €2.05/L 20%
a total export blockade from the Gulf.
Conclusions and Outlook
Despite the turbulence in international markets, the forecasts for the second quarter in Bulgaria are reassuring regarding physical supply. At present, no fuel shortages are expected in the country. The primary challenge for businesses remains the volatility of diesel prices, which will complicate efforts to achieve optimal and predictable costs.
Given that the Bulgarian market is specific and supplies primarily originate from a single key producer, the choice of a supplier should be based on two critical factors: competitive pricing and adequate logistics. However, in conditions of market uncertainty, the financial stability and resilience of the supplier's business model become decisive.
Should the current economic situation persist, there is a real possibility that companies with accumulated operational issues or inefficient business models may encounter difficulties. This could directly impact end customers through delivery delays or the termination of deferred payment options. Therefore, a partner's ability to ensure timely transportation and financial flexibility amidst fluctuating quotes is what will guarantee efficiency and peace of mind for customers' operational processes.
This analysis has been prepared for the information of NaftaBul’s partners and clients. For specific inquiries and current wholesale quotes, our team remains at your disposal for consultations.
